The Government is not going to present this Tuesday the new macroeconomic table that will accompany the 2022-2025 Stability Program, and that will contain the already announced downward revision of the forecasts for GDP in 2022, in a context of high uncertainty due to the impact of the war in Ukraine and the escalation of prices.
Although the first vice president and minister of Economic Affairs and Digital Transformation, Nadia Calviño, had stated that the new macroeconomic table would be released this Tuesday , the Executive has finally decided to postpone its presentation and it will not be presented at the press conference after the Council of Ministers , as they have transferred to Europa Press in government sources.
Of course, the stability program must be sent to Brussels before Saturday, April 30, so the Executive must have both the plan and the new macroeconomic forecasts ready this week.
The President of the Government himself, Pedro Sánchez, recently confirmed that there will be a downward revision of the GDP growth forecast for this year due to the impact of the war in Ukraine on the Spanish economy, although he insisted that growth will continue to be ” robust”.
In a context now marked by the effects of the war in Ukraine and the escalation of prices, all national and international organizations have lowered their growth forecasts for Spain and have raised their estimates for inflation.
In the national territory, the Bank of Spain cut its growth forecast for the Spanish economy in 2022 to 4.5% and raised average inflation to 7.5% , while the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) lowered it to 4 .3% its estimates for GDP in 2022 and placed inflation at 6.2%.
At the international level, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its estimates by one point, although the growth prospects for Spain (4.8%) placed them above the rest of the large economies in the euro.
Some outdated forecasts
With this panorama of uncertainty, the Executive has preferred not to carry out constant revisions on the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and other macroeconomic parameters and has decided to stick to what is established. And it is that it should only release forecasts twice a year, in April to make the Stability Plan that they send to Brussels and in the autumn, to make the budget plan.
For this reason, the forecasts of September last year made for the update of the macroeconomic table that accompanied the General State Budgets (PGE) of 2022, which estimated a growth for the GDP of 7% this year or that the deflator of GDP stood at 1.5%.
Regarding the estimates on the unemployment rate, the Executive foresaw in September that it will be reduced to an average of 14.1% in 2022, a downward path that will continue in the following years and in a context in which unemployment rates are also being registered. Record figures for affiliation to Social Security, which already exceeds 20 million people, according to advance data for the month of April announced by the Minister of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration, José Luis Escrivá.
Regarding the deficit, the Executive included in the budget plan that it would drop to 5% in 2022 and the reduction will continue in 2023 and 2024, exercises in which it will fall to 4% and 3.2%, respectively. The Minister of Finance and Public Function, María Jesús Montero, recently remarked that the Government is “in a position” to meet its objective of reducing the public deficit to 5% of GDP this year, despite the measures contained in the shock plan to deal with the crisis stemming from the war in Ukraine.
This improvement in the public deficit will also be reflected in the debt data and the latest forecasts by the Executive pointed to it falling next year from 119.5% to 115.1%.
Next request for the 12,000 million European funds
Just one year ago, the Executive was preparing to send, together with the Stability Program, the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan to channel the 140,000 million European reconstruction funds that it will receive until 2026.
Although the shock caused by the invasion of Ukraine by Russia has hit the economy, the Executive maintains its desire for the Recovery Plan to reach “cruising speed” in its deployment, for which it has planned to mobilize during the first semester of the year calls for 24,000 million euros.
For this, the Government has already announced that it plans to request in the coming weeks the request for payment linked to European funds ‘Next Generation EU’ corresponding to the second half of the year, which represents the highest disbursement of resources, 12,000 million euros, linked to the fulfillment of some of the most important milestones of the Recovery Plan, such as the approval of the labor reform.
In addition, in this context, it is especially important to complement and prolong the action of the Recovery Plan with the already announced request for loans linked to the ‘Next Generation EU’, of which Spain can receive up to 70,000 million euros.
For this, the Ministry headed by Nadia Calviño is already beginning to work with the Government departments to prepare the addendum to the Recovery Plan in which they already include the credits to be requested.